Here Comes the Heat--and It Is Deadly

The calendar says that summer has just begun. But for many Americans, it seems that summer began a month early. On June 14, an astonishing 120 million of us were covered by extreme heat alerts.

Thanks to climate change, the past seven years have, in succession, been the seven hottest years on record. Last summer was tied for the hottest on record with the Dust Bowl year of 1936.

 This summer may be even hotter. In the first part of June, Phoenix hit 114 degrees, while Las Vegas reached 109. The list of cities that dealt with temperatures topping 100 degrees includes Austin and San Antonio (105); Lincoln (103) and North Platte, Neb. (108); Columbia, S.C. (103); and St. Louis (100).

 As global average surface temperatures increase, the probability of warm extremes, often referred to as “long tail" events, skyrockets. The average number of heat waves in the United States has tripled, from two per year in the 1960s to six in the 2010s, according to the National Climate Assessment. The heat wave season is also 45 days longer than it was in the 1960s. 

 If global warming is not slowed, the hottest heat wave many people have ever experienced will simply be their new summertime norm, Matthew Huber, a climate scientist at Purdue University, told Raymond Zhong of The New York Times. “It’s not going to be something you can escape.”

And heat kills. In fact, heat ranks as the top weather-related killer in the U.S. on average each year, killing more than 600 people annually, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). That’s a number that is bound to increase. Since 2017, 570 people have died of heat-related causes in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, up from 241 heat-related deaths during the previous five years.

 “We all know that when flash flooding or thunderstorms or hurricanes are coming, we better take care of ourselves,” Erika Bandala told The Washington Post. “But not really about extreme heat. It’s probably one of the most under-considered risks that we can be facing.” Bandala is an assistant research professor of environmental science at the Desert Research Institute in Las Vegas. 

Effectively, under steam-bath conditions, our bodies absorb heat from the environment faster than we can sweat to cool ourselves down. And “unfortunately for humans, we don’t pump out a lot more sweat to keep up,” Dr. W. Larry Kenney, a professor of physiology at Pennsylvania State University, explained to The New York Times’ Zhong.

 Heat’s victims often die alone, in their own homes. Apart from heatstroke, Zhong reported, it can cause cardiovascular collapse and kidney failure. It damages our organs and cells, even our DNA. Its harms are multiplied in the very old and very young, and in people with high blood pressure, asthma, and other conditions.

 When the mercury is high, we aren’t as effective at work. Our thinking and motor functions are impaired. Excessive heat is also associated with greater crime, anxiety, depression and suicide.

 Children’s education is taking a hit, as well. Many school buildings lack air conditioning and are closing more often just before and after summer vacation. Heat inhibits learning. In a study published in the journal Nature Human Behavior in 2020, researchers found that students scored worse on standardized exams for every additional day of 80-degree or higher temperatures.

 On top of all that,  the combination of gusty winds, low humidity and drought — intensified by recent record-breaking temperatures — has spurred dangerous fire conditions in the West. The wildfire season has become longer in recent years and the fires, more intense.

Animals are suffering, too. Extreme heat and humidity in Kansas have killed “thousands” of cattle across the state in recent weeks, The Washington Examiner reported.. 

Of course, the U.S. is not alone. European heat waves have been creating plenty of headlines. And since the beginning of March, an unprecedented heat wave has gripped India and Pakistan, affecting more than a billion people on the subcontinent, Zoha Tunio reported in Inside Climate News.

Jacobabad, a landlocked city in Pakistan’s Sindh Province 340 miles north of Karachi, is pushing the limits of human livability on a warming planet. In the spring, Jacobabad endured temperatures in excess of 100 degrees for 51 straight days. In May, the temperature hit 123.8 degrees.

 How much more heat must we endure before Congress takes action?

Atlantic Ocean wiping out coastal homes

Imagine being the owner of a nice oceanfront home that ends up on a YouTube video as it collapses into the Atlantic. The unfortunate owner declined to speak with The Washington Post, but a neighbor whose house met the same fate in the unnamed storm, said, “It was a shock. I didn’t realize how vulnerable it was.” He had bought the coastal retreat just nine months earlier.

The two properties were in Rodanthe, North Carolina, the easternmost town in the Tar Heel State. Another home there was wiped out February 9. That had prompted Dare County and National Park Service (NPS) officials to urge other homeowners along the coast to either move or remove their homes before they met a similar fate. Officials identified 11 other homes that were in danger of collapsing. (The area is part of Cape Hatteras National Seashore.)

These weren’t the first homes in North Carolina to be swallowed up by the Atlantic, and they won’t be the last. Since the early 1980s, the sea level along some parts of the state has risen by roughly three inches, according to NASA.

Reacting to the latest house collapses, David Hallac, superintendent of the national seashore, told The Post, “What was surprising to me is that they lasted as long as they did. This is a rapidly eroding area … [and] I don’t have any reason to believe that erosion will stop. If anything, the scientists I’ve spoken with and publications I’ve read suggest that erosion will be exacerbated by sea level rise.”

Fortunately, no one was injured, but debris from the two homes is now scattered up and down the national seashore and will likely require an extensive cleanup process, Sarah Kuta wrote in Smithsonian.

Patricelli, a Californian who hadn’t spent a single night in the house, had teamed up with his sister to buy it for $550,000. According to a CNN story, coastal erosion in the United States costs around half a billion dollars each year in the form of deteriorated structures and land that is lost to the rising ocean.

Of course, North Carolina is not alone. Oceanographer John Englander, author of Moving to Higher Ground and a member of our Advisory Board, wrote, “At present the rate of global average sea level rise is about five millimeters a year, roughly a quarter of an inch. The rate is now triple what it was last century. And it’s accelerating. On the current path it could rise a meter higher in the next fifty years.”

The threat is abundantly clear to occupants of 337 summer cottages at Roy Carpenter’s Beach in Rhode Island. Their treasured piece of coastline is eroding faster than any other part of the state — an average of 3.3 feet a year. In 2012 the community took an indirect hit from Hurricane Sandy, which damaged 11 homes and washed three of them out to sea. 

Tony Loura, who has summered in Roy Carpenter’s Beach for almost 20 years, estimates that he used to be 1,000 feet from the water. Now, the ocean is only about 150 feet away. “Every time they say there’s a storm, I get worried,” he told The Post. “Some residents want the beach’s owners to fight off the sea. They think they should build a sea wall, they should bring in tons of sand. Last year, they spent a lot of money on sand. Guess what: It’s all gone.”

For a variety of reasons, The Post’s Brady Dennis noted, Americans continue to flock to disaster-prone areas of the country, despite growing risks of floods, fires and other catastrophes. And as sea levels rise, storms intensify and heat waves grow hotter, even places that once seemed relatively free of risk could face more serious threats to health and homes.

“It’s important for people to recognize that coastal systems are feeling the effects of sea level rise and climate change today,” said Reide Corbett, a coastal oceanographer at East Carolina University and executive director at the Coastal Studies Institute. “It’s not something that’s a decade off. It’s something that is happening.”

Businesses playing growing role in tackling climate change

Most Americans want Congress to take action on climate change. But Congress doesn't seem to be up to the job. 

Fortunately, many business leaders understand the enormity of the challenge and are taking it on. Corporate interest began to ramp up around 2010, after a House-passed greenhouse gas bill died in the Senate. 

At that point, a growing flow of reports from financial institutions warned of the economic consequences of inaction, Time magazine’s Justin Worland wrote recently. “And key voices in the business community—from Michael Bloomberg to Bill Gates—took the message on the road, telling CEOs to take climate change seriously.” 

In late 2015, a group of business leaders showed up at the Paris climate summit to talk with government officials. “The result,” Worland reported: “CEOs declared their commitment to reducing emissions, and the final text of the Paris Agreement created a formalized framework for involving private companies in the official U.N. process.”

Then Donald Trump landed in the Oval Office. The new president announced that he would take the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement. Within hours, 20 Fortune 500 companies declared that they were “still in” the global climate deal and would cut their emissions in hopes of keeping the U.S. on track. By the time Trump left office, more than 2,300 American companies had joined the coalition.

In November 2021, when Worland walked around the Scottish Events Center at the most recent UN climate conference, “it would have been easy to forget that the conference was ostensibly for government officials. An attendee could easily spot, among the 40,000 attendees, high-profile business leaders mingling in the hallway. And by many accounts, the most significant news involved the private sector. Six major automakers joined with national governments to declare that they would produce 100% zero-emissions passenger vehicles no later than 2035. A group of financial institutions representing $130 trillion in assets committed to aligning its investments and operations with the Paris Agreement.”

Mark Carney, United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance, leads the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), which represents more than $130 trillion in assets. He recently told Axios’  Andrew Freedman that his network has been focused on turning commitments into action. "Governments haven't been moving fast enough. In fact, I would argue that governments are now lagging the corporate sector and certainly lagging the NGO and activist sector in truly taking the problem as seriously as it needs to." 

The Biden administration is keenly aware of the importance of business involvement. We “need to accelerate our transition” off fossil fuels, said Brian Deese, director of the president's National Economic Council. “And that is a process that will only happen if the American private sector, including the incumbent energy producers in the United States, utilities and otherwise, are an inextricable part of that process—that’s defined our approach from the get go.”

In an April 18 letter to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, 15 major businesses with operations and employees across the Great Lakes State wrote: “As major businesses, employers, and consumer brands in Michigan, we write to express our support for the transition to a carbon-neutral economy by 2050… Climate change poses a significant risk to our businesses, threatens the competitiveness and livelihoods of our supply chains, and impacts the communities in which we operate. Because of these risks to our businesses, consumers, and employees, we view climate action as a top priority for Michigan and we offer our support for statewide strategies that will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.” 

Investors are increasingly conscious of the threat posed by climate change. BlackRock, with $10 trillion under management, is the world's largest asset manager and influences the financial sector's wider climate approach. "[W]e anticipate that by 2030, at least 75 percent of BlackRock corporate and sovereign assets managed on behalf of clients will be invested in issuers with science-based targets or equivalent," the firm said recently, compared to 25 percent today.

Business Roundtable represents the CEOs of American companies with 20 million employees and more than $9 trillion in annual revenues. “Unchecked,” the group maintains, “climate poses significant environmental, economic, public health and security threats to countries around the world, including the United States. While the United States has made significant progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions as a result of private sector innovation and supportive state and federal policies, the existing patchwork of federal and state regulations, tax incentives, subsidies and other policies is inefficient and has negatively impacted the long-term investment strategies of many U.S. companies by creating regulatory uncertainty.”

Of course, amidst what The Washington Post’s Douglas MacMillan called “a tsunami of environmental pledges,” there is concern about insincerity and exaggeration, or greenwashing. Claims should not always be taken at face value.

Many business leaders, like thousands of economists, have urged Congress to put an honest price on carbon emissions. Financial Times columnist Tim Harford wrote, “It has been encouraging to watch the world finally start to mobilise action on climate change — and even more encouraging to watch the rapidly falling costs of solar and wind energy. A carbon tax would help to push this clean energy revolution forward — and into the decisions each of us makes every day.” He's right. 

Will your next car run on electricity?

Will your next car run on electricity? Nearly 9 percent of the new cars sold last year worldwide were electric, up from 2.5 percent in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. By 2025, 25 percent of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. will be fully electric or plug-in hybrids, the Boston Consulting Group predicts. 

“It’s one of the biggest industrial transformations probably in the history of capitalism,” Scott Keogh, chief executive of Volkswagen Group of America, told The New York Times.

Automakers are rushing to get ahead of their rivals. The industry is on track to invest half a trillion dollars in the next five years to make the transition to EVs, Wedbush Securities, an investment firm, estimates. Companies are planning more than a dozen new electric car and battery factories just in the United States.

The excitement was evident to the huge audience tuned into February’s Super Bowl. As Axios put it, “The suite of expensive ads shows how automakers are increasingly devoting marketing dollars to new and upcoming electric models.” For example, Arnold Schwarzenegger played Zeus in a BMW spot hyping EVs, and in a GM ad Mike Myers revived Dr. Evil. 

If you go electric, you will have a wide range of options. Scores of new electric cars, trucks, vans, and SUVs have already been announced, and more will be soon. Ford decided that its F-150 truck, the long-time leader in vehicle sales, will be available as an EV (named “Lightning”), and it has sold out all 200,000 offered so far. 

One of the buyers is Eddie Berry, the owner of an auto-parts delivery business in Groveport, Ohio. He has long relied on pickup trucks for work and camping trips. He had little interest in EVs until the Lightning. His roughly $75,000 truck will be delivered this spring. Since the Lightning can be used as a power source, it will revolutionize Berry’s tailgate at Ohio State football games. “I’ll be able to set up my big-screen TV,” Mr. Berry told The New York Times. “I can power the electric smoker I use for ribs and pork. I’m superexcited. I’m going to be the guy everybody’s talking about.” 

Around the world, the rapid shift to embrace electric vehicles is creating opportunities for tech companies to join the auto market since EVs are simpler to manufacture than cars carrying internal combustion engines. That explains the partnership announced recently by Sony and Honda, which plan to begin selling their cars in 2025. 

Of course, any industrial transformation on this scale faces challenges. The U.S. will need at least 1 million public chargers by 2025 — up from about 131,000 publicly available plugs today.

Range anxiety has declined because most EVs now have a driving range of at least 250 to 300 miles. But it remains a concern for many potential EV buyers. "Access to charging infrastructure is really the biggest hurdle now," Bonnie Datta, founder of Plug To Grid Strategies, told Axios.

The Biden administration's $5 billion electric vehicle charging plan — while far short of what's needed — is a psychological play meant to ease Americans' anxiety about driving an EV, experts say. The plan is to strategically place 33,000 fast-chargers along desolate stretches of interstate highways, thus reassuring drivers they'll never be stranded. 

Fast-chargers? They can recharge an EV to 80 percent in just 20 minutes — about the time it takes to grab a snack and use the bathroom at a rest area. Ten percent of the federal chargers will be fast, while the rest will be "slow" Level 2 chargers for apartment buildings or for topping off while at destinations like stores, libraries, and churches. Fast-chargers cost about $150,000 — at least 10 times more than a Level 2 charger. 

Another challenge is obtaining a steady supply of the raw materials, such as lithium, to make the batteries. The nation’s best and brightest are working to advance battery technology and thus reduce dependence on sources in China and elsewhere. U.S. automakers and their suppliers “are racing to develop a new generation of batteries that are cheaper, can pack in more energy and charge faster,” The New York Times reported.

Even the nation’s traditional system of sales can slow the transition to EVs. Most Americans cannot buy a car directly from the automaker, The Atlantic’s Robinson Meyer pointed out. In 17 states, laws forbid any automaker from opening a store and selling its vehicles directly to customers. Another 11 states allow only one automaker, Tesla, to open stores and sell directly to state residents. 

Daniel Crane, a law professor at the University of Michigan who studies dealer-protection laws, explained to Meyer that EVs, with their lower upkeep costs, can’t provide the cash flow that dealers need to survive. Dealers’ “economic model is to make all their money on service,” said Crane. “They have a 30 percent margin on service, but only a 5 percent margin on sales…. If you want to see more rapid market penetration of electric vehicles, then prohibitions on direct sales are a major barrier.” 

Congress took a look at the pace of EV market penetration March 8 during a hearing before a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.  “If we want to reduce Putin’s power… then we need to double-down on alternatives, not on the same old failed policies of the past,” said Committee Chairman Frank Pallone Jr. (D-NJ), adding that with the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed last November, “we have the historic opportunity to charge forward on EVs.” The bill set aside $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and a $2.5 billion competitive grant program with funding designated for rural and underserved communities. Pallone said the U.S. must make “smart investments to usher in the post-oil era as quickly as possible.”

Here’s another way to step up the pace on EVs: Put an honest price on carbon. That will make gasoline-powered cars less appealing. Please encourage those who represent you on Capitol Hill to take that common-sense step.

Tackling climate change makes economic sense

Two reports issued January 25 spell out the enormous upsides of limiting global warming's severity, along with the growing perils from inaction.

A report by the Deloitte Economics Institute, Andrew Freedman of Axios wrote, “shows that rapidly decarbonizing the U.S. economy during the next 50 years could generate $3 trillion, and add nearly 1 million more jobs to the economy by 2070.”

"Unchecked climate change is a costly choice for the U.S.," Alicia Rose, deputy CEO for Deloitte U.S., told Axios. Such a loss, Deloitte found, would be equivalent to almost 4 percent of U.S. GDP in 2070, or about $1.5 trillion. Insufficient action would also cost jobs, with nearly 900,000 disappearing each year due to climate-caused damage through midcentury. In contrast, Deloitte concluded, the cost of moving the country to net-zero emissions would be about 0.1% of GDP ($35 billion per year through 2050).

One challenge facing policymakers is the need to focus on the long term rather than the short term–and the track record on that is not so good. The Deloitte report said that the costs of the energy transition would be front-loaded, with the break-even point, or "turning point," coming between 2041 and 2050.

Deloitte compared a scenario in which global warming is left relatively unchecked, with average temperatures increasing to 3° C (5.4° F) above preindustrial levels, with one in which the Paris target of limiting warming to "well below" 2° C is met.

One example of the financial peril that would likely result from inaction is the cost of floods, which have become more frequent and more damaging , due in part to climate change. A study by University of Bristol researchers, published January 31 in Nature Climate Change, forecasts that average annual flood losses in the U.S. would surge by 26.4 percent by 2050, from $32.1 billion today to $40.6 billion. The greatest increases are projected for the Southeast, along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

“It’s the latest scientific research to show the myriad ways in which rising temperatures associated with climate change could reshape society, destroy homes and infrastructure, and endanger lives,” Aaron Gregg reported in The Washington Post.

The second report issued January 25, by McKinsey Global Institute, took a worldwide view. McKinsey concluded that reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 could lead to a reallocation of labor, with about 200 million direct and indirect jobs gained and 185 million lost by 2050. Reaching the goal would require $275 trillion of cumulative global capital spending or about 7.5 percent of global GDP from 2021 to 2050.

In its report, McKinsey wrote, “It is important not to view the transition as only onerous; the required economic transformation will not only create immediate economic opportunities but also open up the prospect of a fundamentally transformed global economy with lower energy costs, and numerous other benefits—for example, improved health outcomes and enhanced conservation of natural capital.”

The Deloitte and McKinsey reports are consistent with previous research showing the economic wisdom of taming global warming. In 2019, for example, the World Bank found that an investment of $1, on average, yields $4 in benefits.

We continue to urge Capitol Hill lawmakers to enact a carbon tax and other measures to put our nation in a position to honor our Paris Accord commitments. They need to hear from all of us that failure to take strong action is not an option.